Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

224
FXUS63 KMPX 170002
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
702 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon.

- Temperatures warm well above normal next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as
Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Clear skies &
light winds tonight will allow temperatures to quickly fall into
the 30s, with widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected
overnight. A Freeze Warning is in effect overnight through 9 AM
Saturday across the entire area, with the exception of the inner
core of the Twin Cities metro. Southwesterly winds could pick up
earlier in the night across western Minnesota & keep
temperatures a few degrees above freezing, but HRRR & AIFS
forecasts still suggests freezing temperatures are likely here
albeit closer to midnight instead of Saturday morning. Tonight`s
freeze will effectively end the growing season across much of
the region, with our next shot a widespread freeze likely not
coming until November, so take care to protect remaining
sensitive outdoor vegetation should be protected.

The cold spell will be brief as the high pressure departs to the
east and gusty southwest winds develop through Saturday morning.
Wind gusts increase to 25-30 mph by the afternoon along with
temperatures warm into the low 60s across western Minnesota &
upper 50s elsewhere. This combination of gusty winds, warmer
temperatures, & afternoon humidity values approaching 30% will
lead to elevated fire weather conditions. The greatest concern
will be across western Minnesota, where the warmest & windiest
conditions are expected along with drier fuels that missed
Thursdays soaking rain.

Temperatures continue warming into next week as upper-level
ridging strengthens across the central CONUS. Highs in the low
to mid 70s are likely by the end of the week, around 10-15
degrees above normal for mid-October. Dry weather looks to
dominate the period with any appreciable rain not unlikely
until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR with clear skies through the period. Light and variable
winds will increase early morning out of the southwest between
5-10kts. Between 12-15z, stronger wind gusts will mix down
towards the surface once again increasing sustained wind speeds
between 15-20kts with gusts between 20-30kts for the rest of the
period. There is an increasing potential for 40-45 kt LLWS
tomorrow evening after 00z.

KMSP...No additional concerns other than the additional of LLWS
after 00z between 40-45 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts.
MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for
     Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-
     Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
     Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-
     Yellow Medicine.
WI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for
     Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-
     St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Dunleavy

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion