Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

964
FXUS63 KMPX 160958
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
458 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm today, with critical fire weather conditions
  across western MN on this afternoon.

- A very strong cold front will trek east through the area on
  Friday. Thunderstorms will develop on the front near I-35
  early Friday afternoon. A few storms could be severe, mainly
  east of I-35.

- Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers
  Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Today and Tonight: Current observations reveal temperatures in the
40s and 50s, with light and variable winds across the region.
Southerly winds will ramp up after daybreak with gusts up to 30 mph
likely across western Minnesota. Our primary concern today will be
near critical fire weather conditions across western Minnesota.
Temperatures will warm in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the
region ahead of the next low pressure system. The combination of
gusty southerly winds and low RH values between 15 to 25 percent
prompted an upgrade of our Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning
for portions of west-central and southwest MN. Warm air advection
via the southerly winds will keep our low temperatures tonight close
to our average high temperatures for this time of year. Lows will be
in the 50s to 60 in the Twin Cities.

Friday and Friday night: Attention turns to Friday as a strong
cold front is progged to move through the region late morning
and afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s
and 70s ahead of the front, but the frontal passage will cause
temperatures fall 20 to 25 degrees in the afternoon. Storms and
showers will develop along the frontal boundary around
lunchtime/Noon. Guidance suggests the storms really get going
east of I-35 in western Wisconsin. The environment in the warm
sector is favorable for severe weather. A few of these storms
may be strong to severe with the potential to produce large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms start off as
discrete cells before quickly congealing into a squall line
that`ll pose a primary wind/tornado threat as it moves east
across WI. A Slight Risk (2 of 5) remains for much of our W WI
counties, but a sliver of Eau Claire county is now in an
Enhanced Risk (3 of 5). Forecast soundings highlight a very
favorable low level shear environment across central WI along
the sfc low pressure track. Overall, the best threat of severe
weather is east of our forecast area, but we`ll have to keep an
eye on the initial thunderstorms that develop Friday afternoon.
These could produce hail and damaging winds before turning into
a linear mode.

Precipitation will changeover to snow Friday evening as colder air
works in. Thankfully, the snow potential remains well off to our
north. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and lower 30s Friday
night with. A few

Saturday through next Thursday: Saturday and Sunday are going to a
snap back to more typical April weather with highs in the 40s and
low 50. A few "mood flakes" are possible on Saturday with cold
air aloft under the high pressure, but nothing more than that.
The pattern will dry out through middle of next week.
Temperatures begin to rebound as the surface high shifts to the
east and warm air advection ramps up in the southerly return
flow. Highs will return back into the 60s and 70s for the first
half of the new work week before another organized system looks
to impact the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Fog never made it to EAU so I have removed the TEMPO group.
VFR is expected is expected the entire period. Southerly winds
will increase in speed by mid-morning at all sites. Gusts up to
30 knots for AXN and RWF during the afternoon hours. Gusts will
reach 25 knots in central and eastern MN during the afternoon.
Mid to high level clouds will build in tonight into Friday
morning ahead of an approaching cold front.

KMSP... No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE
10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts.
SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion