Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

193
FXUS63 KMPX 061154
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
554 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected throughout this forecast period
  with above normal temperatures returning over the weekend and
  continuing through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

satellite imagery early this morning shows mainly clear skies
across the CWA for all but one strip of stratus between RWF and
MKT. This has allowed temperatures to drop quickly into the
upper 20s to low 30s for all except the Twin Cities urban heat
island and where the aforementioned clouds are still lingering
in southern Minnesota. To the east over northern Wisconsin,
there are some clouds moving down off Lake Superior, but they
have made very little progress into western Wisconsin over the
past several hours. As was mentioned in the previous AFD update,
MinTs have been lowered to account for this loss of cloud cover
that models struggled to resolve for much of the day yesterday.
Felt that CONSSHORT and NBM had a decent handle on both the sky
cover and temps, so have used a blend of those to lower MinTs
heading into this morning. As of 1:45am CST, MSP is sitting at
34, which is the coldest temperature we`ve seen so far this
season. Given there is still plenty of time to drop a couple
more degrees before sunrise, this morning could very likely end
up being the first freeze of the season for the Twin Cities
metro.

At the surface, a broad 1026mb high is centered over Minnesota. This
will allow for some sunshine to at least start the day following
several days of gloomy, overcast conditions. Once again, cloud cover
remains the biggest forecast uncertainty. As the high drifts to
the south through the day, the stratus that is currently
rotating around the western periphery will come back into
western Minnesota. This won`t have much in the way of impacts on
sensible weather, but if it does get into southwestern
Minnesota (generally along the Minnesota River valley to MKT)
early enough, it could impact today`s high temperatures. CAA
will continue into at least this evening, so highs are only
expected to be in the 40s anyway. Overnight into Saturday
morning, this cloud deck could work to keep temperatures a
little warmer than this morning, when it had previously looked
like Saturday would be the colder of the two days. In either
case, this will be the last of the below freezing temperatures
through at least the middle of next week. We`ll see a warming
trend Saturday onward with highs making a run at the low 60s by
Monday. A weak cold front will move through Monday night, but
temperatures will still be in the 50s for the remainder of the
forecast period. Precip wise, we look to remain dry overall, but
a weak system during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe may bring
some light shower chances to eastern portions of the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

The forecast remains on track this morning with no major changes
made. KRWF did end up getting some fog, which is showing up
along the Minnesota River Valley. Otherwise, still anticipating
that stratus deck over the Dakotas to shift back to the east by
this evening. MVFR cigs are likely for KAXN, but any further
south/east there is higher uncertainty. Have opted to stick with
SCT020 with a higher BKN deck since guidance remains very
split. Winds remain light and variable before ultimately
shifting to the southwest at 5kts or less.

KMSP...No additional concerns. Will be watching for cig trends
later this evening/overnight, may have a few hours of MVFR
conditions early tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dye

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion