Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities
907
FXUS63 KMPX 120914
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
314 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold Weather Advisory in effect for wind chills of -25 to
-35F Friday night through Sunday across much of Minnesota and
western Wisconsin.
- Light snow showers possible for Friday morning`s commute.
Accumulations less than 1" expected.
- Highs trend above freezing for the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
An area of clear skies has allowed temperatures to drop below
zero across parts of east-central Minnesota and western
Wisconsin this morning. Regional radar and satellite show an
approaching surface front from the northwest, producing light
snow in parts of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.
This front will pass through central and eastern Minnesota
throughout the morning, potentially impacting the morning
commute, creating slick travel and decreasing visibilities with
any stronger bands that may form. Overall QPF is expected to be
light, with only a few hundredths to a tenth forecast. The snow
will linger in western Wisconsin into the early afternoon
before exiting east.
Winds will increase out of the northwest behind the front,
gusting to around 25 to 35 mph. This will help usher in much
cooler air, dropping temperatures below zero across the entire
region. Good news is that the winds weaken during the coolest
part of the night, though wind chills will still be 20 to 30
degrees below zero Saturday morning. Winds increase again
during the day Saturday as another system passes to the
southwest, limiting any recovery from the blistery conditions.
Latest guidance keeps most of the snow to our south with this
system, though portions of southwest Minnesota could pick up an
inch or two of fluffy snow. The rest of folks north will mainly
just see a light dusting or flurries Saturday morning.
The worst of the cold peaks during Saturday night into Sunday
morning, with high confidence for the entirety of the region to
have wind chill temperatures 25 to 35 degrees below zero. It`s
not until Sunday afternoon where winds shift out of the south
and we start to rebound temperatures. A Cold Weather Advisory
remains in effect to highlight our coldest stretch of weather of
the winter so far.
Long range ensembles continue to suggest a pattern change with
ridging building in over much of the central US. Temperatures
should climb above freezing for at least a few days, depending
on how long the southerly flow can hold in place. The one thing
working against us will be the solid snow pack not only in our
area, but also well south and west of us. We also should see a
lull in precipitation until the ridge breaks down, potentially
around mid-late week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Generally VFR conditions at initialization will hold through the
early morning hours. MVFR ceilings will settle in prior to
daybreak ahead of an incoming cold front. This front will be
the focus for morning to early afternoon light snow across
central MN into western WI. MVFR ceilings will still prevail
although IFR ceilings/visibilities are likely under the heavier
bursts/bands of snow. Conditions will then gradually improve
through the MVFR range Friday afternoon-evening, potentially to
VFR by late Friday evening. Winds will turn NW with the frontal
passage with speeds becoming breezy/gusty.
KMSP...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the overnight
hours and into the morning push, then will look for MVFR
ceilings to return shortly after sunrise. Best timing of the
band of snow likely to impact MSP looks to be in the 12z-16z
timeframe, potentially as early as 11z and potentially as late
as 17z. IFR conditions likely with the passage of this swath of
snow, with accumulations up to a half inch possible. Conditions
will then gradually improve through the rest of the day. Winds
will turn NW with the passage of the front responsible for the
snow, with directions nearly straight down the 30s with speeds
increasing to near 15G25kts in the afternoon hours.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S early, bcmg WNW 10-15kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
Sunday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Carver-Chippewa-
Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-
Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-
Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-
Washington-Wright.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday
for Brown-Faribault-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-
Yellow Medicine.
WI...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
Sunday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion
"
