Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

539
FXUS63 KMPX 141939
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
239 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight which will end
  the growing season across the area.

- Increasing fire weather concerns midweek as warm, dry, and
  windy conditions return.

- Light rain continues to look likely this weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Sprawling Canadian high pressure continues to spread southwards
today, with the high expected to center over the area by
tomorrow morning. This will setup prime radiational cooling
temperatures overnight, if skies are able to remain mostly clear
tonight. Patchy stratocumulus advecting off of Lake Superior is
expected to continue into this evening, and any residual areas
of cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures several degrees
warmer than those areas that clear out. Western Minnesota will
see the least amount of cloud cover, and as a result overnight
lows are expected to drop well into the mid-20s by sunrise.
Elsewhere, sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s
are expected, but a few spots could stay above freezing where
patchy cloud cover persists overnight. Regardless, enough of the
area is expected to have a solid freeze tonight to effective
end the growing season across central, eastern, and south-
central Minnesota. Daytime temperatures will remain cool
tomorrow with highs in the low 50s.

The high pressure begins to depart on Wednesday, with increasing
southerly winds on the backside of the high ushering in warmer
conditions to the region. Elevated fire weather conditions look
possible across western Minnesota Wednesday afternoon where
gusty south winds, low RH values, and highs warming into the mid
60s will create an increasing fire weather risk. Temperatures
really warm Thursday & Friday as ridging aloft over the central
CONUS brings well-above normal temperatures into the region and
a chance for daytime highs in the 70s - 10+ degrees above
normal. West of this ridging, troughing tries to build into the
central CONUS by saturday but most models have it weakening and
the flow aloft weakening over the weekend. Still, a frontal
boundary is expected to move through the region late Friday
through saturday, with most ensemble guidance suggesting high
probabilities for light rain amounts (

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion