Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

280
FXUS63 KMPX 242345
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
645 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions this evening with cooler and drier air
  returning tonight.

- The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend,
  especially Sunday when widespread rain is likely across
  southern MN and western WI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A cold front has pushed into western WI this afternoon, sparking
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Eau Claire to
Ladysmith. Colder air is beginning to filter into western MN,
accompanied by gusty winds and increasing stratocu. The gusty
winds will continue through mid evening, and then as the low
continues northward into southern Canada, winds will ease
overnight. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s area wide.

Hot on the heels of today`s system, the next one to watch will
develop over eastern CO and western KS Saturday. A warm front
will set up across central MN in the afternoon and a few showers
may form along it. The compact low will progress northeast to IA
Sunday morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will remain
somewhat confined near the low center. Thus, rain totals and
PoPs will be heavily dependent on the track of the low itself
for Sunday. As one would expect, PoPs are highest across
southern MN and western WI, but there remains a lot of spread
among the ensemble guidance. At MSP, for example, QPF spread
ranges from zero to 2.5 inches on the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM
ensemble systems. The lighter totals are carrying the most
weight in the ensemble mean, but it illustrates the sensitivity
at hour 48 of the low track.

That system heads out Sunday night and northwest flow takes hold
for early next week. A couple disturbances embedded in the
northwest flow will bring shower and thunderstorm chances
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will also fall to below normal
with highs in the 60s Tuesday.

Surface high pressure will build east to the eastern U.S. mid
to late week and allow southeast low level flow to moderate
temperatures back to near or above normal across the Upper
Midwest. Another trough approaching from the northern Rockies
may bring increasing chances for rain Thursday night and Friday,
but any precip should be encountering a lot of dry air this far
east with flow from the Gulf being cut off.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Extensive diurnal stratocu field out there this early evening
will slowly diminish after sunset, with the wind gusts following
suite a couple of hours later. We`ll start off Saturday with
mainly clear skies, but mid level clouds will be on the increase
through the day as a warm front slowly develops over central MN.
RAP forecast soundings are dry below 10k feet and it looks like
overrunning to the north of the boundary won`t start producing
-RA until it`s near an AXN/BRD line after 21z Sat, so for all by
 AXN and maybe STC, Saturday looks dry. Winds this period will
 slowly transition from the current west to a more SSW by the
 end of the period, with some gustiness showing up again
 Saturday afternoon in southern MN into western WI.

KMSP...There is a small threat for a shower Saturday between 21z
and 23z, though given the dry air below 10k feet, kept the TAF
dry.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E to NE 10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind WNW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...MPG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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