Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

967
FXUS63 KMPX 180523
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1223 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight, cold tonight with areas of frost in central and
  western Minnesota.

- Next chance for rain arrives Monday into Tuesday, with highest
  chances along I-90, lowest chances north of I-94. Severe
  weather is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Tonight...A layer of low stratus within cyclonic surface flow
continued across the region, This kept temperatures in check
today, with afternoon highs struggling to make it into the 50s.
Overnight, upper level ridging and subsidence should lead to
clearing skies form west to east along with decreasing winds.
Areas that do clear out could see overnight lows falling into
the low 30s, so did expand the frost advisory for a few more
counties.

Sunday through Friday...High pressure will build on on Sunday,
with less clouds and wind than today. afternoon highs will be in
the low 60s. On Monday, an upper level wave will lift out from
the desert southeast and eject across the Central CONUS, where
it will Fujiwara with another wave crawling down the western
spine of the Rockies. The first wave will lead to surface
cyclogenesis over Nebraska, and the cold front that passed
through our region will lift back north as a warm front leading
to widespread rain across the Missouri River Valley Sunday night
into Monday. The second wave rotate around the parent trough,
and this will have the same effect on the lower atmosphere, only
this time the low and frontal boundary will be farther north,
brining rain across Iowa and parts of southern MN and southern
WI. There is uncertainty as to how far north the rain shield
will make it, with the Twin Cities to Eau Claire currently being
a good proxy for the northern edge. One thing that`s for sure
is instability will be nearly nonexistent, which means a very
low chance for thunderstorms or severe weather despite the
favorable shear profile. Folks that do get under the heavier
band of rain could pick up over an inch, but it will be falling
rather steady in stratiform state, so not anticipating any hydro
threats as well.

Looking ahead, this system will slowly exit the region on
Wednesday, and be followed by high pressure, light winds, more
sunshine, and warmer temperatures for the second half of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Cloud cover has been stubborn this morning and looks to remain
as such through the first half of the period. High MVFR/low VFR
is expected for the first 12-18 hours, followed by clearing
skies and rising CIGS. Winds will slowly shift from 320-350 to
060-090 remaining at or below 10kts.

KMSP...Added in an TEMPO for the first few hours as we likely
fluctuate between MVFR/VFR given upstream obs and satellite
imagery.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind NE 15-20G30kts.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Brown-
     Chippewa-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-
     Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...TDH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion