Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

000
FXUS63 KMPX 061133
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
533 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today, with records highs possible Thursday.

- A cooler pattern this weekend into early next week with some
  small chances (10 to 20%) for precipitation, but little if
  any accumulation is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Today and Thursday...Early morning satellite imagery with
surface obs showed the surface high pressure ridge axis along
the MN/WI border, with southerly winds beginning to develop
across the region. These southerly winds were already warming
temperatures a couple of degrees overnight, and this warmth
will be the main story for the next few days. Dry conditions are
expected, and temperatures aloft will support record highs on
Thursday. The main question is how deeply will we mix during the
day with the low sun angle, being we`re only a couple weeks
from the winter solstice. Forecast soundings are show rather
shallow mixing, but they appear to be overdone in terms of
boundary layer moisture. Given the lack of snow cover, did
continue to adjust temperatures toward the high end of forecast
guidance, with widespread 50s likely on Thursday, and 60s across
western Minnesota.

Friday through Wednesday...A cold front will move through the
region on Friday, bringing breezy westerly winds of 20 to 25
mph. Temperatures don`t really cool off though until the
secondary cold front moves through Friday night, and brings
more northwest winds. In addition, models have trended with a
slightly stronger upper level northern stream wave, and the
combination of cold air advection with weak synoptic lift could
lead to a few rain/snow showers on Saturday. For that reason,
did add chances for precipitation above the blended forecast
guidance. Any rain or snow that does fall will be very light,
generally trace amounts. Looking ahead, this more seasonable,
weather will stick around into next week, but temperatures will
still be slightly above the average for mid-December with highs
in the low 30s and lows in the teens to near 20.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. High level cloud
cover is beginning to spread from the NW to SE.Southerly winds
will increase slightly as the high pressure progresses, limiting
the production of fog.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...PEM

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion