Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities
657
FXUS63 KMPX 171155
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
555 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers and even a few rumbles of thunder spread across
the area this evening.
- Rain transitions over to snow across portions of central
Minnesota Wednesday. Snow accumulations of 1-2" are expected
in central Minnesota.
- Turning colder late week with another chance for accumulating
snow Thursday night/Friday - mainly across the southeastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
It`s another quiet and mild night across southern MN and western WI,
though changes are near with the strong shortwave on water vapor
imagery moving across Utah early this morning. Ahead of this
shortwave, we`re seeing lee cyclogenesis developing over WY, with a
thermal gradient sharpening along a stationary front that goes from
that developing low in Wyoming, southeast to Sioux City and across
Iowa to the north of I-80. By the afternoon, a surface low will
bottom out in the lower 980s near Cheyenne. This low will track
across SoDak this afternoon and evening, ending up in central MN
Wednesday morning. For Wednesday through Wednesday night, this low
will fill in as it slowly drifts from central MN into northwest WI.
Given this track, the heaviest precipitation from this system is
expected to fall across northern MN, with onshore flow off of Lake
Superior resulting in the potential for some 2 foot plus snow totals
up in the Lutsen area.
Locally with this system, we`ll see increasing southeast winds
through the day as the surface low pushes across SoDak. By the
afternoon, we`ll see fairly strong isentropic lift develop as h85
winds increase into the 40-60kt range. This will result in the
development of a band precip this afternoon along roughly the I-94
corridor. However, forecast soundings show a very dry wedge of air
at h7 sitting beneath this bit of mid-level forcing, so it`s
uncertain how long it will take this band of precip to overcome this
dry sub-cloud layer to reach the ground. Current model consensus
would say this doesn`t happen until this band of precip is north of
I-94 across central MN into northwest WI, with it quickly moving
north of the MPX area. Around 00z, with the surface low over eastern
SoDak, an area of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of
the main PV anomaly. These showers and storms will track ENE across
western/central MN this evening and overnight, arcing out ahead of
the low and occluded front. Looking at updraft helicity on the HREF,
you see a few UH tracks out in western MN this evening, so some
small hail will likely be possible with the strongest convection
that develops. After midnight, this band of showers with the PV
anomaly will meet up with the ongoing fgen/isentropic precip in
northern MN and that is when the winter storm will really kick into
high gear to our north. For the MPX area, the dry slot will pretty
much dry us out late tonight into Wednesday morning, but Wednesday
morning into the afternoon, we will see a band of wrap around
moisture work in to the south of the surface low. This wrap around
precip is where our chances for snow comes in, but just how far
south and east this wrap around precip makes it is uncertain. Strong
CAA will change the p-type over to snow during the day on Wednesday
across central MN. Current forecast has 1-2" of snow up in northern
Todd county and surrounding areas, though we may not be strong
enough in dropping temperatures on Wednesday. If we indeed see a
more aggressive transition to snow than currently forecast, then a
band of 1-3" of snow will be possible across much of central MN that
could reach as far southeast as the Twin Cities.
On Thursday, light snow should continue through much of the day over
northern MN with the surface low slowly spinning over northern
Wisconsin. However, as our first low slowly fills in, another
shortwave coming out of CO on Thursday will result in a surface low
tracking from roughly KC, to the Quad Cities and Green Bay. This is
a favorable track for accumulating snow across southeast MN into
western WI, though model spread remains high in just how strong this
secondary surface low ends up being. For us to get some accumulating
snow out of this, we definitely need to hit the stronger end of the
model spectrum, which is where the ECMWF/EPS continues to reside.
Given that the majority of EPS members have this stronger surface
cyclone Thursday night, the NBM and our current forecast currently
leans into the direction of a stronger low Thursday night, though
there`s still potential that the current forecast is a bit too
optimistic for the snow lovers out there in southeast MN and western
WI if the weaker low pans out.
For next weekend, we`ll have upper troughing overhead, with ample
opportunities for seeing more shortwave activity. This will likely
keep us cloudy with on/off periods of light snow. The bigger story
though for next weekend is that with a 1050mb high nosing in from
the Canadian Prairies, we`ll see our first bout of below normal
temperatures since the beginning of February. The core of the cold
air will remain to our west, but we`ll get into the cold air enough
to see lows in the single digits and highs in the low-mid 20s. Going
into next week, we`ll see upper ridging and milder temperatures
return, with the next chance for precip showing up in the
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe (24th and 25th), though given a warmer
airmass returning, it will likely mean another chance for mixed
precip. We had a promising start the winter at the beginning of
December, though this winter season doesn`t look like it will
exactly stick the landing.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
East winds ramp up today ahead of the next system with gusts up
to 25 to 30kts. Mid-high level clouds will be present for much
of the day. Stratus will build in and MVFR ceilings expected by
tonight. Rain showers are likely but confidence is still
somewhat low if they`ll impact our eastern terminals or now.
Kept the PROB30s for now given the lower confidence due to some
dry solutions in the hi-res guidance. Some isolated
thunderstorms are possible for AXN/RWF/STC depending on how much
instability is present during the frontal passage. Dry slot
should turn precip off outside of AXN/STC tonight. Winds begin
to shift to the west by end of period.
KMSP... A drop into MVFR in the evening before the chance of
rain showers move through with the frontal passage. The better
chance for rain showers and possible TSRA still looks to the
north/west of the terminal area.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RASN. Wind W 10-20 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind N 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN early. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...BPH
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion
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