Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

982
FXUS63 KMPX 082323
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
523 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers possible in Wisconsin on Sunday.

- Cold snap continues through Monday before warming back to
  near/above normal for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

At 230 PM, radar continues to show some light snow or flurries
across southern MN. Trends have been improving during the last
couple of hours as the system in Iowa continues to push east.
Visibilities are now generally 2+ miles, so any accumulating
snow has likely ended. Some surface obs have also reported a bit
of light rain or drizzle mixing in where temperatures are in the
upper 30s. Otherwise, temperatures have been steady in the low
to mid 30s across the region. All precipitation will end by
late afternoon. A 1040 mb high will build into the Plains and
eastern Rockies for Sunday. Winds will increase tonight as the
high approaches due to a tightening pressure gradient. Gusts of
25 to 35 mph are likely Sunday, which combined with highs only
in the upper 20s to lower 30s will make it feel more like the
teens. Cyclonic flow will linger across eastern MN and WI into
Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings are saturated in the DGZ
with steep lapse rates through that layer, so there may be some
isolated/scattered snow shower or flurry development. The
boundary layer will be dry, thus some of the weaker showers may
not reach the ground. Whether or not they reach the ground,
little or no impacts are expected.

Cold temperatures will linger into Monday, then high will
weaken and slide into the southeastern U.S. for midweek.
Return flow will quickly bring moderating temperatures as early
as Monday night and Tuesday. A mild Pacific airmass will remain
in place for the rest of next week as the storm track shifts
back north into Canada. By next weekend, a stronger system
traversing southern Canada will bring a cold front east across
the Plains next weekend. A healthier push of warm air lifting
north ahead of the front could bring temperatures back into the
60s next Saturday, with 70s not out of the question just to the
south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The BKN CIGS are largely scattering out resulting in lower-mid
level VFR bases, with CIGS expected to redevelop after the
clearing over central Minnesota moves through over the first 6
hours of the TAF. Low VFR/high MVFR cigs are expected to linger
through the overnight, becoming SCT once again and lifting
during the day tomorrow. Winds will be increasing overnight,
becoming sustained at around 15kts gusting into the mid to upper
20kts tomorrow from roughly 16-00z.

KMSP...The main decision for the TAF was whether or not to
include a TEMPO for high MVFR CIGS from roughly 06-12z, however
CAM guidance suggests for the bases to sit closer to 035-040
with some SCT coverage underneath. We may need a short term AMD,
but the majority of the period should remain VFR such that we
would not meet the condition for a TEMPO. Otherwise, expect
increasing winds at 300-330 gusting 25-30kts after 16z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW bcmg SW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S bcmg WNW 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...TDH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion